MEITUAN(03690) 华安证券·2024-12-06 12:21Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Meituan-W (03690) [2] Core Views - Meituan's 3Q24 revenue reached 935.77 billion yuan (YoY +22%), slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1.7% [2] - Adjusted EBITDA was 145.29 billion yuan (YoY +135%), 9.0% above Bloomberg consensus [2] - Adjusted net profit stood at 128.29 billion yuan (YoY +124%), 10.1% above Bloomberg consensus [2] - Operating profit surged to 136.85 billion yuan (YoY +308%), 41% above Bloomberg consensus [2] Segment Performance Core Local Commerce - Revenue: 693.73 billion yuan (YoY +20%), 1.5% above Bloomberg consensus [2] - Operating profit: 145.82 billion yuan (YoY +44%), 13.7% above Bloomberg consensus [2] - Operating margin improved by 3.5 percentage points to 21.0% [2] - Instant delivery orders grew 14.5% YoY to 7.1 billion, with daily orders reaching 77.17 million [2] New Initiatives - Revenue: 242.04 billion yuan (YoY +29%), 3.9% above Bloomberg consensus [2] - Operating loss narrowed to 10.26 billion yuan (YoY +80%), 42.4% above Bloomberg consensus [2] - Meituan Flash Shopping daily orders exceeded 10 million, with peak orders reaching 16 million during Qixi Festival [2] - Flash warehouses surpassed 30,000, covering multiple consumer categories [2] In-store, Hotel & Travel - Order volume grew over 50% YoY [2] - Annual transacting users and active merchants reached record highs [2] - "Hotel + X" cross-selling strategy enhanced supply diversification [2] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 3,367/3,857/4,352 billion yuan (previous: 3,344/3,889/4,421 billion yuan) [4] - 2024-2026 adjusted net profit forecast: 423/521/707 billion yuan (previous: 386/522/698 billion yuan) [4] - Revenue growth rates: 22%, 15%, 13% for 2024-2026 respectively [4] - Adjusted net profit growth rates: 82%, 23%, 36% for 2024-2026 respectively [4] Key Financial Metrics - 2024E revenue: 3,366.99 billion yuan (YoY +22%) [6] - 2024E adjusted net profit: 423.05 billion yuan (YoY +82%) [6] - 2024E EPS: 5.71 yuan [6] - 2024E P/E ratio: 19x [6] Strategic Initiatives - Diversified supply through initiatives like Pinhaofan, Shenqiangshou, and brand satellite stores [2] - Merchant support measures including 6-12 month commission rebates and 1 billion yuan subsidies [2] - AI-powered location services for restaurant merchants [2] - Expansion of flash warehouses to 100,000 by 2027, targeting 200 billion yuan market size [2]