汽车行业2025年度投资策略报告：智能化平权元年，全球化更进一步

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The automotive industry is entering a year of equalization in smart technology, with significant advancements in automation and globalization [1] - The overall automotive sector has shown substantial excess returns, particularly in the vehicle segment, driven by the rise of autonomous driving and the introduction of popular new models [6][18] - The report emphasizes two main themes: the dual focus on smart technology and globalization, with expectations for significant growth in both areas by 2025 [7][11] Summary by Sections 1. Excess Returns in Vehicle Sector - The automotive sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.9 percentage points, with a year-to-date increase of 17.93% as of December 2, 2024 [6][18] - The performance of sub-sectors includes passenger vehicles (+31.78%), commercial vehicles (+54.78%), auto parts (+6.72%), and auto services (-13.05%) [6][18] 2. Passenger Vehicles & Parts: Focus on Smart Technology & Globalization - The report predicts that 2025 will be a pivotal year for smart driving, with advancements in Robotaxi and humanoid robots [7][11] - The penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to exceed 50% in 2024, with a projected retail sales volume of 13.2 million NEVs by 2025 [39][40] - The report highlights the importance of smart driving capabilities in consumer purchasing decisions, with several new models achieving significant pre-order success [34][37] 3. Commercial Vehicles: New Growth Cycle Supported by Demand - The commercial vehicle sector is expected to benefit from both domestic and international demand recovery, with government spending and export opportunities driving growth [8][11] - The report notes that the sales of new energy buses are likely to increase due to local government initiatives [8] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in smart driving technology, such as Seres, Li Auto, and Xpeng, as well as companies with strong overseas expansion capabilities like BYD and Great Wall Motors [11][13] - Key suppliers in the smart technology space, such as Desay SV, Kobot, and Huayang Group, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [11][13]