生物柴油深度系列之一：SAF需求拐点将至，国内产能加速布局

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The global biodiesel consumption is rapidly increasing, with China's development potential being significant. In 2023, global biodiesel consumption reached 65.86 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.34% from 2009 to 2023. China's biodiesel production is approximately 2.2 million tons, with total capacity exceeding 4 million tons per year [2][48]. - The demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is expected to surge due to the EU's mandatory blending policies, which will require 2% SAF in aviation fuel by 2025, increasing to 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050. This translates to a need for approximately 1 million tons of SAF by 2025 and 2.55 million tons by 2050 [2][37]. - Waste cooking oil is anticipated to become a mainstream raw material for biodiesel, with its share increasing over the past decade. The environmental advantages of waste oil biodiesel, which can achieve an 80% reduction in emissions, position it favorably against other raw materials [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Biofuel Industry - Biodiesel and SAF offer significant advantages in low carbon emissions, safety in storage and transportation, and compatibility with existing diesel systems, making them strategic alternatives to fossil fuels [26]. 2. EU-Led Demand for Biofuels - The EU has been at the forefront of establishing mandatory blending policies, with the latest RED III directive aiming for a 42.5% renewable energy target by 2030. This includes a 29% target for the transport sector [36][37]. 3. Industry Chain: Domestic Industry Maturation - China's biodiesel industry is evolving, with significant potential in waste oil collection and processing. The country produces over 5 million tons of waste cooking oil annually, positioning it as a key supplier for biodiesel production [6][48]. 4. Recommended Companies to Watch - Companies with second-generation hydrocarbon biodiesel and SAF production capabilities or technology reserves include Jiaao Environmental Protection, Zhuoyue New Energy, Haineng Science and Technology, and Pengyao Environmental Protection [7][10].