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【浙商宏观||李超】美国财政赤字能否收缩?
浙商证券·2024-12-06 20:03

Fiscal Deficit and Spending - Trump's administration advocates for reducing the deficit, but historical trends suggest a low probability of success, with systemic deficit reductions mainly occurring post-war or during industrial revolutions[2] - The U.S. fiscal deficit is unlikely to decrease significantly in 2025, as historical reductions have been tied to war endings or technological revolutions, neither of which are currently present[5] - The U.S. federal government's total expenditure in 2023 was approximately 6.1trillion,withmandatoryspending(6.1 trillion, with mandatory spending (3.8 trillion), discretionary spending (1.7trillion),andinterestpayments(1.7 trillion), and interest payments (0.7 trillion) accounting for 61%, 28%, and 11% respectively[25] Government Efficiency and Spending Cuts - The proposed "Government Efficiency Department" (DOGE) aims to cut 2trillioninspending,butitsprimarypurposemaybetocentralizepowerunderTrumpratherthanachievesignificantfiscalsavings[6]−TheDOGEinitiativefocusesonreducingadministrativecostsandregulations,potentiallyleadingtoaconcentrationofexecutivepower,butitsactualimpactonspendingcutsremainsuncertain[21]DefenseandDiscretionarySpending−U.S.defensespendingin2023was2 trillion in spending, but its primary purpose may be to centralize power under Trump rather than achieve significant fiscal savings[6] - The DOGE initiative focuses on reducing administrative costs and regulations, potentially leading to a concentration of executive power, but its actual impact on spending cuts remains uncertain[21] Defense and Discretionary Spending - U.S. defense spending in 2023 was 805 billion, with limited room for cuts due to ongoing geopolitical risks and Trump's emphasis on military strength[28] - Federal government employee wages totaled 271billionin2022,with60271 billion in 2022, with 60% of employees in national security roles, making significant cuts unlikely[30] Social and Welfare Spending - Mandatory spending, which includes social security and healthcare, accounts for 98.1% of total mandatory expenditures and is difficult to reduce due to its political sensitivity and the "ratchet effect" of welfare programs[26] - Trump's previous attempts to cut healthcare spending, such as the Affordable Care Act, were largely unsuccessful, and recent efforts to reduce welfare spending have been minimal[27] Industrial and Infrastructure Subsidies - Industrial subsidies, particularly in energy and infrastructure, are critical to Trump's "Make America Great Again" agenda, with significant spending on traditional energy and infrastructure projects unlikely to be reduced[33] - The CHIPS Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, with combined spending of 800 billion, are unlikely to face cuts due to their importance in U.S. industrial and technological competitiveness[34]