Lebanon Interim Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA)

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry assessed Core Insights - The interim Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA) conducted by the World Bank estimates that the conflict in Lebanon has caused at least US$3.4 billion in damage and US$5.1 billion in economic losses as of November 2024, significantly impacting various sectors including housing, commerce, and agriculture [23][24][26] - The conflict has led to a projected contraction of real GDP growth by at least 6.6% for 2024, compounding an already severe economic crisis that has seen a 34% contraction in real GDP since 2019 [24][41] Overview - The DaLA assesses damage and losses across key sectors from October 8, 2023, to October 27, 2024, and includes an analysis of the economic impact on Lebanon's GDP and displacement patterns [23][24] Damage Estimate - Total damage is estimated at US$3.4 billion, with the housing sector accounting for approximately 82% of this damage [28][29] - Damage distribution shows that Nabatiyeh and South governorates represent 45% and 38% of total damage, respectively [33] Loss Estimate - Estimated 12-month losses across assessed sectors total US$5.1 billion, with commerce and tourism sectors being the most affected [36][37] - The agriculture sector alone is projected to incur losses of US$1.1 billion due to destruction and displacement [50][51] Macroeconomic Analysis - The conflict is expected to lead to a real GDP contraction of at least 5.7% in 2024, with significant declines in private consumption and tourism [40][41] - The ongoing economic crisis, compounded by the conflict, undermines Lebanon's recovery prospects [41][42] Displacement - Over 1.3 million people have been displaced due to the conflict, exacerbating existing humanitarian challenges [23][44] - The displacement crisis has led to increased pressure on local services and infrastructure [44][46] Sectoral Assessment Findings - Agriculture: Damage estimated at US$124 million with losses of US$1.1 billion [50][51] - Commerce: Damage of US$178 million and losses of US$1.7 billion [52][54] - Education: Losses estimated at US$215 million due to displacement and operational disruptions [55][56] - Environment: Damage of US$221 million with losses of US$214 million [58][59] - Health: Damage of US$74 million and losses of US$338 million [60][62] - Housing: Damage of US$2.8 billion with losses of US$389 million [63][64] - Tourism and Hospitality: Damage of US$18 million and losses of US$1.1 billion [66][68] Methodology - The DaLA employs a comprehensive methodology integrating quantitative and qualitative data to assess damage and losses across sectors [70][71] - The assessment relies on high-resolution imagery and publicly available information to ensure data accuracy [71][72] Next Steps - The findings will inform a comprehensive Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) to be conducted once conditions allow, focusing on recovery and reconstruction strategies [74]