Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices did not experience significant declines during the off-season in September and October, and have strong upward momentum entering the traditional peak season despite previous economic sluggishness [2] - The report highlights that the average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim region increased by 1.11% week-on-week, while the average daily outflow surged by 35.61%, indicating a stable supply and improving demand [1][46] - The report suggests that the current domestic coal price is around 820 RMB per ton, with strong upward momentum expected due to economic stimulus policies and a recovery in overall demand [2] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.33% this week, while the coal sector index increased by 5.39% [27] - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports was 1.829 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.11% [46] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - As of December 6, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port decreased by 6 RMB/ton to 812 RMB/ton [34] - The price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong fell by 20 RMB/ton to 674 RMB/ton [34] 3. International Coal Prices - The report notes that the international standard coal price rose to 153 USD, which corresponds to approximately 930 RMB/ton for domestic 5500 kcal thermal coal [2] 4. Inventory and Shipping - The coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased by 5.71% week-on-week to 29.311 million tons [51] - The average shipping cost on domestic routes increased by 15.61% week-on-week to 44.07 RMB/ton [52] 5. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on resource stocks, particularly undervalued companies such as Guanghui Energy and Haohua Energy, as potential investment opportunities [3][56]
煤炭开采行业跟踪周报：环渤海港口库存逐步去化，气温偏暖煤价短期承压
Soochow Securities·2024-12-07 16:34