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美国就业数据点评:飓风罢工消退美就业强劲恢复并可能延续
Huajin Securities·2024-12-08 02:47

Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs, a significant rebound from the previous month's impact of hurricanes and strikes, which saw a reduction of 191,000 jobs[1] - The combined job revisions for September and October amounted to an increase of 56,000 jobs[1] - The service sector, heavily impacted by hurricanes, saw a substantial rebound, while manufacturing jobs increased by 22,000 in November, recovering from previous losses[1] Labor Market Indicators - The unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in November, while the labor force participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%[1] - Average hourly wage growth remained steady at 4.0% for the second consecutive month, indicating strong demand in the labor market[1] Economic Outlook - The strong employment and wage growth in November support expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will not lower interest rates in December[1] - The potential for a wage inflation spiral may increase due to the policies of the incoming Trump administration, which could lead to a tighter labor market and rising consumer prices[1] - The dollar index is expected to strengthen, posing challenges for domestic monetary policy and exchange rate management in China[1]