煤炭行业定期报告：供给有望边际减少，煤价不必悲观

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [3]. Core Viewpoints - The coal supply is expected to marginally decrease, leading to a stable coal price environment. Despite high inventory levels, coal prices are unlikely to fall below 800 RMB per ton due to decreasing coal mine operating rates and increasing power plant procurement [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of resource endowment, high dividend ratios, and improved production and sales in identifying investment opportunities within the coal sector. It suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and potential for increased dividends [2][3]. - The coal industry is positioned to benefit from ongoing energy transformation policies, with supply constraints expected to persist due to strict capacity controls and increasing mining difficulties [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The coal index increased by 5.39% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 1.44%. Year-to-date, the coal index has risen by 8.62%, while the broader index has increased by 15.8% [14][16]. 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of December 6, 2024, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 812 RMB per ton, down 6 RMB from the previous week (-0.7%). The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 83.9%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points week-on-week [2][30]. - Methanol and urea operating rates are at 86.8% and 82.3%, respectively, indicating a mixed performance in the non-electric sector [2][30]. 2.2 Annual Long-term Contract Prices - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 696 RMB per ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 3 RMB (-0.4%) and a year-on-year decrease of 14 RMB (-2.0%) [31]. 2.3 Spot Prices - Domestic coal prices have seen slight declines, with the Inner Mongolia price at 674 RMB per ton and Shanxi price at 674 RMB per ton, both showing week-on-week decreases [35][36]. 3. Supply and Demand 3.1 Supply - The operating rates of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions have slightly decreased, with Inner Mongolia at 90.3% and Shanxi at 73.3% [52][55]. 3.2 Demand - The daily consumption of the six major power plants is 80.4 million tons, down 1.6 million tons week-on-week. However, their inventory has increased to 1,444.6 million tons, reflecting a 1.0% increase [55][56]. 3.3 Inventory Management - The inventory of coal production enterprises has slightly increased to 1,405.9 million tons, while Qinhuangdao coal inventory is at 687.0 million tons, showing a minor increase [72].