2025年机械行业年度策略：周期成长，百花齐放

Investment Rating - The report rates the mechanical industry as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The mechanical industry is experiencing a cyclical growth phase driven by supportive policies, including fiscal expansion, monetary easing, and stabilization of the real estate market [6][8] - Key sectors benefiting from this growth include engineering machinery, shipbuilding, industrial gases, and rail transit equipment, with emerging opportunities in solar and wind energy equipment [6] - The report highlights the rise of technology-driven sectors such as the AI industry chain, semiconductor equipment, humanoid robots, and the low-altitude economy as significant growth areas [6] Summary by Sections Main Line 1: Cyclical Reversal - The report emphasizes a cyclical reversal supported by government policies, which are expected to benefit sectors like engineering machinery and shipbuilding [6][34] - The engineering machinery sector is projected to see a rebound in both domestic and export sales, with estimates indicating a 15% year-on-year increase in domestic excavator sales in November 2024 [40][47] Main Line 2: Growth Rise - The AI industry chain is identified as a leading sector for the next decade, with significant potential in the Tesla and Huawei supply chains [6] - The report notes that the semiconductor equipment sector is expected to grow due to increasing domestic demand and technological advancements [6] Main Line 3: Global Supply - The report discusses the global positioning of Chinese companies in the engineering machinery and shipbuilding sectors, highlighting the potential for increased market share in international markets [7][40] - It mentions that the Belt and Road Initiative is expected to enhance export opportunities for Chinese engineering machinery [40] Industry Performance - As of December 6, 2024, the mechanical industry index has risen by 13%, ranking 12th among 31 primary industries [12][14] - The top-performing sub-sectors include semiconductor equipment (+38%), humanoid robots (+29%), and low-altitude economy (+28%) [15][22] Key Companies - Major companies highlighted in the report include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, which are expected to benefit from the cyclical growth [28][31] - Smaller companies such as Zhejiang Rongtai and Shanghai Yanpu are also noted for their potential in niche markets [28][31]