纺织服饰2025年度策略：关注品牌复苏，优选制造龙头

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a focus on brand recovery and the selection of leading manufacturers, anticipating a gradual recovery in consumer demand in 2025 after a challenging 2024 [3]. - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and hats in China from January to October 2024 showed a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, lagging behind the overall retail sales growth of 3.5% during the same period [3]. - The report identifies structural opportunities in product and channel trends, with a notable increase in the penetration of functional products like sportswear [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The textile and apparel sector has underperformed the broader market since the beginning of the year, with the brand apparel index rising by 4.1% and the textile manufacturing index declining by 1.0%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 13.6% [17]. - The performance of the textile and apparel sector is characterized by greater volatility compared to the overall market, with deeper declines during downturns and weaker recoveries during uptrends [19]. Industry Operating Trends - The report highlights that the apparel brands are expected to recover, with structural opportunities in products and channels [3]. - The demand for functional products is increasing, and the performance of brands in this category is expected to be strong [3]. - The online sales channel continues to grow faster than offline, with the outlet channel expected to maintain healthy growth, particularly in lower-tier cities [3]. Investment Strategy - The report outlines key investment themes for 2025, focusing on high-quality functional apparel leaders, resilient brands during consumer recovery, and strong manufacturing companies [3]. - Recommended stocks include Anta Sports and Li Ning in the sportswear segment, with projected P/E ratios of 15 and 11 times for 2025, respectively [3]. - The report also suggests investing in high-dividend, low-valuation stocks, with an average dividend payout ratio exceeding 70% in 2023 for the textile and apparel sector [3].