钢铁行业周报：淡季中的胶着

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key stocks in the steel industry, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and Xinxing Ductile Iron [6]. Core Views - The steel industry is currently experiencing a seasonal lull, with the market's focus shifting towards the implementation of policies from the Central Economic Work Conference and external environmental changes following the new U.S. policy cabinet [3]. - The report indicates that while steel prices have slightly retreated, the overall market sentiment remains weak due to the seasonal downturn, despite low inventory levels [3]. - The report anticipates a more favorable fiscal policy in the coming year, which could lead to a recovery in the industry as some companies are currently undervalued [3]. Supply Analysis - The average daily pig iron production has decreased by 12,000 tons to 2.326 million tons, with the capacity utilization rate for 247 steel mills at 87.3%, down 0.5 percentage points week-on-week [13]. - The production of five major steel products was 8.612 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.3% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 5.2% [13][22]. Inventory Analysis - Total steel inventory has decreased by 1.1% week-on-week, with significant reductions in rebar inventory, while hot-rolled coil inventory has seen a smaller decline [22]. - The social inventory of five major steel products stands at 7.831 million tons, down 0.6% week-on-week and 10.5% year-on-year [22][23]. Demand Analysis - The apparent consumption of five major steel products has weakened, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year decline of 4.9% [34]. - The weekly transaction volume of construction steel was 113,000 tons, down 0.8% from the previous week [35]. Raw Material Analysis - Iron ore prices have weakened, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $104.4 per ton, down 1.0% week-on-week and 21.0% year-on-year [43]. - The report notes an increase in Australian iron ore shipments by 5.5% week-on-week, while Brazilian shipments have decreased by 0.8% [43].