策略周评20241208：流动性交易能否跨年？

Group 1: Market Dynamics - Liquidity trading is driven by macro policy shifts towards marginal easing, while fundamental expectations remain uncertain[1] - Since September, the market rebound has been significantly reliant on liquidity logic, with A-share trading volume averaging nearly 2 trillion CNY since October, compared to an average of less than 800 billion CNY in the first nine months of 2024[2] - The balance of margin financing increased from 1.4 trillion CNY in mid-September to 1.8 trillion CNY by early December, with the proportion of financing purchases rising from 7% to around 10%[2] Group 2: Performance of Small and Tech Stocks - Low-priced and small-cap stocks have significantly outperformed core blue-chip indices, with excess returns of 63.9% and 21.3% relative to the CSI 300 since September 24[2] - The small-cap and tech sectors are favored due to policy guidance and industry trends, with a focus on sectors like AI, renewable energy, and domestic technology breakthroughs[3] - The rotation index for small and large caps broke through the upper limit of its main operating range by 20% on November 11, indicating a state of over-exuberance in small-cap and thematic stocks[2] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical liquidity-driven markets in 2015 and early 2019 exhibited similar characteristics, including significant monetary easing and slow fundamental recovery[5] - The current market is expected to continue liquidity trading for 1-2 quarters, with potential shifts to fundamental trading if economic indicators show improvement or liquidity conditions tighten[9] - The M1-M2 scissor difference remains low, suggesting that corporate profit recovery may still be pending, limiting the upward potential for fundamental trading[10] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Recommended cross-year portfolio allocation: 60% liquidity trading, 30% fundamental trading, and 10% dividend assets[11] - Focus on sectors with policy catalysts and upward industry trends, particularly in small-cap and tech areas, while maintaining a core position in dividend-paying assets due to declining ten-year treasury yields[11] - Risks include slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery, insufficient Fed rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties[13]