2024年11月外汇储备数据点评：估值有扰动，汇率有支撑

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves Overview - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,658.60 billion, an increase of $4.81 billion month-on-month[4] - The main reason for the increase in reserves is attributed to valuation effects from the decline in US Treasury yields, which contributed approximately $15 billion to the reserves[5] - The estimated impact of exchange rate changes resulted in a loss of about $5 billion due to the strengthening of the US dollar against other currencies[6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The strong US dollar has created pressure, but the RMB exchange rate has shown resilience, with a slight depreciation of 1.5% against the dollar in November[11] - It is anticipated that the People's Bank of China may implement a reserve requirement ratio cut before the Spring Festival to ensure liquidity stability[11] - The trade surplus is expected to expand to $99.5 billion in November, which may lead to additional demand for currency settlement[8] Group 3: Investment Trends - Foreign investment in RMB assets is projected to decrease, with an estimated net outflow of around $10 billion due to various market factors[9] - The average daily trading volume of northbound capital decreased to $32.896 billion in November, indicating reduced activity[9] - The overall impact of trading factors is estimated to have reduced foreign exchange reserves by approximately $4 billion[10]