11月外储：收支稳定，短期人民币汇率先下后上

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves and Trends - As of November 2024, China's official foreign exchange reserves stood at $32658.6 billion, an increase of $4.8 billion month-on-month, indicating relatively controllable international balance of payments pressure[2] - The dollar index rose by 1.8% in November, from 103.9 at the end of October to 105.8, contributing to a negative impact on non-dollar currencies[2] - The estimated impact of currency fluctuations on foreign reserves was approximately -$38.7 billion due to the depreciation of non-dollar currencies against the dollar[2] Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate Outlook - The RMB/USD exchange rate depreciated by 1.3% to 7.23 in November, which was less than the dollar index's appreciation of 1.8%, benefiting from expectations of domestic fiscal policy[3] - It is anticipated that the RMB will experience a downward trend in December, potentially breaking below 7.3 due to a stronger dollar and escalating trade tensions with the U.S.[3] - Following the Central Economic Work Conference, there may be a shift towards appreciation of the RMB, supported by seasonal capital inflows and positive policy guidance for 2025[3] Group 3: Gold Reserves and Market Outlook - As of the end of November, China's gold reserves were at 7,296 million ounces, marking the first increase in six months[6] - The ongoing global trade uncertainties and policy changes under the new U.S. administration may initiate a new cycle of gold accumulation, with central banks increasing their gold holdings[6] - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive due to geopolitical risks, long-term declining interest rates, and a weakening dollar trend[6]