新能源汽车25年投资策略：周期触底反转，龙头公司和技术变革将是主基调

Industry Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained Rating) [3] Core Views - The global lithium battery demand is expected to grow by 22% in 2025, driven by power and energy storage sectors [3] - The industry is at the bottom of the cycle, with capacity utilization expected to improve, leading to a rebound in prices and profitability for leading companies [4] - Technological advancements, such as composite current collectors and solid-state batteries, are expected to drive growth in the battery materials sector [5] Demand Analysis - Global power battery demand is projected to reach 1258GWh in 2025, with a 20% YoY growth [3] - Energy storage battery demand is expected to grow by 40% YoY to 372GWh in 2025, driven by strong demand in the US and China [3] - Consumer battery demand is forecasted to grow by 7% YoY to 129GWh in 2025, supported by the recovery in 3C and power tool markets [3] Cycle and Supply-Demand Dynamics - The industry is transitioning from a period of overcapacity to a phase where demand and supply growth are more balanced, leading to improved capacity utilization [4] - Leading companies in sectors like high-density lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and lithium hexafluorophosphate (6F) are expected to benefit from tighter supply-demand conditions [4] - The battery investment clock suggests that the industry is entering a recovery phase, with leading companies likely to see improved profitability [6] Competitive Landscape - Leading companies in key segments such as battery cells, structural components, and cathode materials are expected to maintain their competitive edge due to cost and product differentiation advantages [4] - The market share of domestic companies in the battery sector is rising, with leading players like CATL and BYD dominating the market [15] - High-density LFP cathode materials are expected to see improved market concentration, with leading companies like Hunan Yuneng and Fulin Precision benefiting from the trend [16] Technological Advancements - Composite current collectors (MC) are expected to achieve mass production in 2025, marking a significant technological breakthrough in battery materials [5] - Solid-state batteries are expected to accelerate their industrialization, with advancements in anode materials and electrolytes driving the next wave of innovation [5] - Large cylindrical batteries and eVTOL batteries are emerging as new growth areas, with significant progress expected in the coming years [29][30] Investment Recommendations - Leading companies in the battery, structural components, and LFP cathode sectors are recommended for investment due to their strong market positions and expected profitability improvements [6] - The composite current collector (MC) sector is expected to see significant growth, with manufacturing, equipment, and base film companies offering the highest investment potential [7] Regional Market Insights - China's EV market is expected to maintain strong growth, with retail penetration reaching nearly 60% by 2025 [162] - The US and European markets are expected to see moderate growth, with potential upside from new model launches and policy support [166][170] - Emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, are expected to see accelerated EV adoption, driven by domestic automakers' expansion [173]