2024年收费公路行业回顾与展望：行业投资渐缓，企业经营效益分化

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable credit outlook for the toll road industry, citing government support and strong refinancing capabilities as key factors [58] Core Views - The toll road industry is experiencing a slowdown in investment, with highway mileage growth expected to remain low in the coming years [7] - Regional disparities in investment pressure are evident, with some western provinces facing significant construction tasks and investment burdens [10] - Road transport remains the dominant mode for passenger and freight transport in China, although the share of road passenger transport has declined significantly [13] - The industry is shifting towards smart highways and digital transformation, particularly in eastern regions [56] Industry Policy - The "Five-Year Action Plan for Accelerating the Construction of a Transportation Power (2023-2027)" aims to increase the national expressway mileage to approximately 130,000 km by 2027, adding about 11,000 km [3] - REITs have become a significant financing tool for toll road enterprises, with several major REITs issued in recent years [44] - The "Financial Leasing Company Management Measures" have imposed restrictions on financing lease targets, potentially affecting toll road enterprises' financing options [6] Industry Operations - China's expressway mileage reached 183,600 km by the end of 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.6% [10] - Road passenger transport accounted for less than 50% of total passenger transport for the first time in 2023, at 49.14% [13] - Road freight transport accounted for 72.45% of total freight transport in 2023, with a slight downward trend expected due to the shift from road to rail and water transport [13] Provincial Toll Road Enterprises - Provincial toll road enterprises dominate their respective regions, with most controlling over 60% of the province's toll road mileage [23] - Eastern provinces such as Shanghai, Beijing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong have high toll revenue per kilometer, exceeding 7 million yuan [25] - Construction costs for new expressways are rising, with Shanghai's cost reaching 635 million yuan per kilometer, while Jiangsu and Guizhou range between 350-400 million yuan per kilometer [25] Financial Risks - The total debt of 23 provincial toll road enterprises reached approximately 8,114.641 billion yuan by June 2024, with a debt capitalization ratio of 63.78% [38] - Short-term debt coverage ratios have weakened slightly, but the industry's strong cash flow generation and ample credit lines provide sufficient debt repayment capacity [40] - Toll revenue coverage of interest expenses improved in 2023, with eastern and central regions generally achieving full coverage, while some western and northeastern regions rely on other business income or government support [47] Data Asset Accounting - Toll road enterprises have begun accounting for data assets, including traffic flow data, vehicle type data, and bridge monitoring data, following the implementation of the "Interim Provisions on Accounting Treatment of Enterprise Data Resources" in 2024 [50] - Data asset accounting is expected to enhance operational efficiency and support digital transformation in the long term [50]