2024年前三季度贸易行业研究

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the trade industry Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2024, China's total import and export trade value reached 32.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, with exports growing by 6.2% and imports by 4.1% [4] - The export growth rate is significantly influenced by the economic changes in major global economies, while the domestic real estate market continues to decline, leading to a noticeable drop in import growth [4] - The trade structure is improving, with a shift towards high-end manufacturing products, particularly in the machinery and electronics sectors, which accounted for 59.3% of total exports [8] - The report anticipates that the external environment will become increasingly complex and severe in the fourth quarter of 2024, with potential impacts from trade friction and adjustments in the real estate market [22] Summary by Sections 1. Trade Operation Status - In the first three quarters of 2024, China's import and export trade maintained stable growth, with total trade valued at 4.55 trillion USD, a 3.4% increase year-on-year [4] - Exports to ASEAN and other developing economies showed a significantly better trend compared to developed economies like the US and EU, with exports to ASEAN growing by 9.4% [7] - The structure of export products is shifting towards high-end manufacturing, with machinery and electronics exports reaching 11.03 trillion yuan, an 8% increase [8] 2. Commodity Price Trends - In the first three quarters of 2024, international oil prices experienced volatility due to geopolitical factors and supply changes, while steel prices declined due to weak demand from the real estate sector [9][10] - Coal prices have been on a downward trend due to oversupply and weak demand, although there was a slight recovery expected with the onset of winter [13] 3. Industry Policies - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to export tax rebate policies, which may increase costs for certain exporting enterprises, particularly those with lower efficiency [15] - A joint opinion from various government bodies aims to enhance cooperation between commerce and finance to support high-quality development in cross-border trade and investment [17] 4. Outlook - The report projects that while trade operations have been stable in 2024, the fourth quarter may face challenges due to trade friction and a weak domestic demand environment, which could impact import growth [22]