水泥行业周期性研究：下行何时结束，水泥行业路在何方

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the cement industry Core Insights - The cement industry has experienced significant cyclical fluctuations since 1992, with demand and supply showing strong cyclicality, particularly influenced by macroeconomic conditions and real estate investments [2][3] - The current downcycle is expected to end with improvements in supply-demand relationships, although short-term demand recovery appears challenging [2] - The report emphasizes that companies with large capacity, high operational efficiency, strong resource endowment, low debt burdens, diversified development, and strong shareholder backing are likely to navigate through the current cycle successfully [2] Summary by Sections Industry Development Overview - The Chinese cement industry has not yet completed its full lifecycle, having undergone various phases since 1978, including introduction, rapid growth, stabilization, and potential decline [3] - The industry is closely tied to macroeconomic performance, with demand fluctuations reflecting broader economic cycles [3] Historical Economic and Industry Performance - The report outlines four distinct cycles in the cement industry from 1992 to present, highlighting the correlation between cement demand and macroeconomic indicators such as GDP and fixed asset investment [3][4] Recent Industry Performance (2016-Present) - The period from 2016 to present has seen fluctuating demand due to various factors, including real estate market adjustments and infrastructure investment trends [34][36] - The report notes that the cement industry has faced significant challenges since 2021, with declining demand and increasing competition leading to reduced profitability [49][48] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for cement is primarily driven by real estate and infrastructure investments, with cyclical patterns observed in response to policy changes and economic conditions [52] - Supply-side reforms and policies aimed at reducing overcapacity have been implemented, but challenges remain in balancing supply and demand effectively [53][54] Major Players in the Industry - The report identifies the top five cement companies in China, which collectively hold a significant share of the market, indicating a trend towards increased concentration in the industry [57][59] - These companies have shown resilience in capacity growth despite the overall industry downturn, with strategic investments and mergers contributing to their competitive positioning [62]