2024年11月美国非农数据点评：非农大幅反弹，为何市场加码降息交易？

Employment Data - In November 2024, the U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expectation of 220,000, with previous months' figures revised up by 56,000[2] - The three-month average of non-farm job additions increased from 123,000 to 173,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.15% to 4.25%, while the employment rate decreased from 59.97% to 59.80%[3] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force decreased by 1.93 million to 168.286 million, with a labor supply gap of -3.52 million[4] - The total labor demand increased by 372,000, while total supply decreased by 161,000, widening the supply-demand gap from 389,000 to 599,000[3] - Wage inflation showed resilience, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.37% month-on-month and 4.03% year-on-year, surpassing expectations[3] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm data release, the market raised the expectation of a rate cut in December from 70% to 89%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell from 4.16% to 4.10%[1] - Despite the strong non-farm rebound, concerns about labor demand sustainability led to market apprehension regarding ongoing labor market "stagflation" pressures[5] Policy Implications - The reduction of foreign labor due to immigration policies is expected to exacerbate labor market imbalances and maintain wage inflation pressure[4] - The market anticipates a compression risk in the expected rate cuts, currently projected at 3.6 cuts/89 basis points by the end of next year[1]