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2025年年度宏观投资策略报告:晦朔交迭,曦光可期
Wanlian Securities·2024-12-08 08:01

Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2025 is expected to remain loose, with a deficit rate potentially exceeding 3%, rising to 3.5% or higher[4] - The anticipated broad fiscal gap is expected to exceed CNY 10 trillion[4] - Special government bonds issuance is projected to increase, with an expected issuance of CNY 1 trillion in 2025 to support key areas[4] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy will continue to be proactive, with room for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[4] - The central bank's tools will remain innovative, focusing on maintaining reasonable liquidity levels[4] - Credit supply is expected to remain ample, with a gradual recovery in credit demand anticipated[4] Economic Growth - The economic growth target for 2025 is set around 5%[3] - Structural adjustments in the economy are ongoing, with a focus on transitioning to domestic demand-driven growth[4] - Industrial production is expected to remain robust, with high-tech sectors continuing to show growth advantages[4] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is expected to stabilize, with policies aimed at mitigating risks and supporting demand[4] - The decline in real estate sales is expected to narrow, with a focus on improving cash flow for property companies[4] Investment Trends - Infrastructure and manufacturing sectors are expected to continue driving investment, supported by fiscal spending[4] - The anticipated issuance of special bonds will extend to new infrastructure and urban renewal projects[4] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is gradually recovering, with policies aimed at boosting consumption expected to expand[4] - High savings rates among residents remain a concern, indicating cautious consumer sentiment[4] Export Challenges - Exports face increasing uncertainties, particularly regarding trade relations with the U.S.[4] - The pressure on export prices is expected to persist, impacting profit margins for processing enterprises[4] Capital Market Outlook - Structural opportunities in the equity market are anticipated, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions[4] - The bond market is expected to experience increased volatility, with a long-term downward trend remaining intact[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected changes in overseas policies and geopolitical tensions[4] - The effectiveness of domestic policies in stabilizing the economy remains a critical area of focus[4]