跨年行情来临，成长占优

Group 1 - The core drivers of the year-end market rally are policies, external events, and liquidity, with historical data showing that the Shanghai Composite Index has an average increase of 10% during such rallies, lasting between 15 to 80 trading days [1][15]. - Positive policies and external events are crucial for initiating a year-end rally, as seen in previous years when favorable economic meetings or agreements led to market upswings [1][15]. - Tight liquidity at year-end can delay the start of the rally, as evidenced by instances where central bank actions led to market slowdowns [1][15]. Group 2 - The report suggests that year-end policies may be positive and liquidity may be loose, indicating a potential for a year-end market rally [2][19]. - Existing policies are expected to accelerate in implementation, with significant funding allocated for infrastructure and consumer incentives, which could boost domestic demand [2][19]. - External risks are anticipated to be limited, with geopolitical tensions showing signs of easing, which may positively influence market sentiment [2][19]. Group 3 - The A-share market is expected to continue a strong trend, with economic recovery and profit growth likely to persist [3][30]. - Economic indicators such as the manufacturing PMI have shown improvement, suggesting a gradual recovery in the manufacturing sector [3][35]. - The real estate market is also showing signs of recovery, with significant increases in sales in major cities, supported by favorable policies [3][36]. Group 4 - Short-term investment focus is recommended on technology growth and core assets, as historical trends indicate that technology sectors often lead market rallies [4][19]. - Specific sectors such as military, communication, and healthcare are highlighted as having potential for growth, alongside consumer sectors like home appliances and textiles [4][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy and industry trends that favor sectors like AI applications, domestic software, and semiconductor industries [4][19].