分母端到分子端行情的过渡：与其举头问天，不如躬身寻路

Market Overview - The market is transitioning from a strong "denominator-driven" phase to seeking "numerator-driven" logic verification after a robust performance[17] - The focus should shift from speculating on policy strength to identifying sectors with improving fundamentals[17] Policy Impact - Since late September, a series of "924" financial policies have significantly boosted market sentiment, particularly in finance, real estate, and consumption sectors[18] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with new home sales in 30 cities increasing by 5.3% year-on-year from September 24 to December 4, 2024[24] Sector Performance - Financial Sector: New home sales are recovering, with a notable increase in sales in first-tier cities by 26.3% year-on-year during the same period[24] - Cyclical Sector: Cement and glass prices are rising, and automotive sales are showing significant recovery, with a year-on-year increase in automotive sales noted[24] - Hard Technology: The TMT sector is experiencing growth, with retail sales of communication equipment showing double-digit year-on-year growth in October[24] Investment Recommendations - It is advised to prioritize investments in the financial, cyclical, and hard technology sectors in the first quarter of 2025, as these areas show signs of recovery and improvement[18] Risks - Potential risks include the possibility that the effects of growth-stabilizing policies may not meet expectations and unexpected changes in the international environment[18]