2024年11月美国劳工数据点评：非农回温，失业率提升降息概率

Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the median expectation of 220,000[2] - October's job growth was revised upward from 12,000 to 36,000, previously the lowest in over three years[2] - The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, above the expected 4.1%[2] Sector Performance - Manufacturing jobs rebounded to +22,000 from a previous -48,000, reflecting the return of workers from strikes[3] - Leisure and hospitality added 53,000 jobs, significantly up from 2,000 in the previous month[3] - Retail sector continued to decline, losing 28,000 jobs, compared to a loss of 24,300 in October[3] Wage Trends - Average hourly earnings for private non-farm employees rose by $0.13 to $35.61, with a year-on-year increase of 4.03%[4] - Weekly average total earnings for private non-farm employees reached $1,221.4, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7%[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the labor data release, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December increased from 67% to 85%[2][8] - Powell indicated that the strong economy allows for a cautious approach to rate cuts, suggesting potential for further easing[8] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate remained stable at 62.5%, indicating limited changes in labor market health[5] - The number of job openings rose by 372,000 to 7.744 million, suggesting a slight increase in employment opportunities[7]