Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable development outlook for the engineering machinery industry, expecting recovery and growth by 2025 [1][51]. Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry in China is currently in a bottoming adjustment phase, with a significant reduction in the rate of decline observed in 2024 [3][48]. - Sales of excavators continue to decline, while loader sales have shown a year-on-year increase [3]. - The export value of engineering machinery products remains positive but is experiencing a slowdown in growth, particularly in countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative [1][49]. - The industry is accelerating its transformation towards digitalization, intelligence, and green development, supported by national policies and major engineering projects [1][51]. Industry Status - In the first three quarters of 2024, excavator sales totaled 147,381 units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.96%, while loader sales reached 81,798 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.73% [3]. - Domestic excavator sales increased by 8.62%, while export sales decreased by 9.04% [3]. - The overall fixed asset investment in the country has seen a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [9]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is affected by the prices of raw materials such as steel, which accounts for approximately 30% of the production cost of engineering machinery [4]. - Steel prices have shown a trend of "fluctuating decline" in 2024, impacting production costs and profitability [4]. - The demand side is primarily driven by real estate development and infrastructure construction, with real estate investment down by 10.1% year-on-year [8][9]. Policy Environment - The government has implemented various policies to support the engineering machinery industry, including large-scale equipment updates and special bonds for infrastructure projects [11][12]. - The focus on green development is expected to enhance the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector [11][12]. Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, sample companies in the engineering machinery sector reported a total revenue of 199.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.03%, while total profits rose by 16.47% to 17.71 billion yuan [17]. - The average net asset return rate for sample companies improved to 6.04%, indicating enhanced profitability [17]. Credit Market Overview - The issuance of credit bonds by engineering machinery companies decreased in 2024 compared to the previous year, with a total issuance of 12.819 billion yuan [33]. - No defaults or downgrades were reported among the sample companies in the engineering machinery sector during this period [40].
工程机械行业观察及2025年信用风险展望
联合资信·2024-12-08 08:54