策略周评：流动性交易能否跨年？

Group 1 - The report highlights that liquidity trading often begins when macro policies shift towards marginal easing, while fundamental expectations have not yet opened up, leading to dual pressure on performance and valuation in the stock market [1][2] - The current market rebound since September is significantly driven by liquidity logic, with A-share trading volume averaging nearly 20 trillion since October, compared to an average daily trading volume of less than 800 billion in the first nine months of 2024 [2][3] - Low-priced stocks and small-cap stocks have significantly outperformed core blue-chip indices, with excess returns of 63.9% and 21.3% respectively since September 24 [2][3] Group 2 - The report identifies key factors for the strong performance of small-cap and technology themes under liquidity trading, including the difficulty of short-term disproof in trading logic and the strong certainty of medium to long-term industry space and fundamentals [3][4] - The marginal pricing funds have shifted from ETFs to active funds represented by retail and private equity, focusing more on industry dynamics and policy changes rather than fundamental aesthetics, allowing small-cap and technology themes to outperform [3][4] - Historical experiences indicate that liquidity trading has distinct characteristics, such as a shift to loose monetary policy and a slow recovery in the fundamental rhythm, with small-cap and growth styles outperforming during these periods [5][8] Group 3 - The report suggests that the probability of continuing liquidity trading into the new year is high, with the central economic work conference's statements on incremental fiscal policy likely not exceeding current market expectations [10][11] - The recommended cross-year portfolio includes 60% liquidity trading, 30% fundamental trading, and 10% dividend assets, focusing on sectors like AI, new energy, and self-sufficiency technology [11][13] - The report emphasizes that dividend assets are becoming cost-effective again, particularly in banking and public utilities, as the ten-year treasury yield continues to decline [11][13]