轻工制造行业定期报告：纸价略涨盈利将迎修复，关注性价比跨境电商

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight upward trend in paper prices, suggesting a recovery in profitability for paper companies, with a focus on companies like Sun Paper, Bohui Paper, and Shanying International [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of cross-border e-commerce, particularly in the context of the U.S. "Black Friday" and "Cyber Monday" sales, which saw significant online spending growth [3][4]. - The home furnishing sector is expected to see continued upward trends due to government subsidies and improved retail sales, with key players including Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhijia Home [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance - The light industry sector underperformed the market with a 1.23% increase compared to the 1.44% increase in the CSI 300 index during the week ending December 6, 2024 [15]. - The packaging and printing index rose by 5.04%, while the home goods index only increased by 0.13% [15]. 2. Home Furnishing - The home furnishing retail sector showed signs of recovery, with a 7.4% year-on-year increase in retail sales for October, while the building materials and home furnishing market saw a 2.71% decline [37][38]. - The report notes a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.6% in the furniture manufacturing industry from January to October [39]. 3. Paper and Packaging - As of December 6, 2024, paper prices have seen increases: double glue paper at 5,362.5 CNY/ton (+162.5 CNY), copper plate paper at 5,470 CNY/ton (+50 CNY), and box board paper at 3,697 CNY/ton (+40.4 CNY) [49]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with integrated supply chains and diverse product offerings, such as Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [2][4]. 4. Consumer Goods - The report indicates a positive outlook for essential consumer goods, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Morning Glory and Dekang Oral Care, which are expected to benefit from improved consumer spending [3][4]. 5. Export Chain - The report highlights the growth in U.S. online sales during the holiday season, with "Black Friday" sales reaching approximately 10.8 billion USD, a 10.2% increase year-on-year [3][4].