Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation rating for the pig farming and pet food industries [38]. Core Insights - The continuous decline in feed raw material prices is expected to further reduce breeding costs in the pig farming sector, with a focus on companies that can leverage these cost advantages [4][31]. - The pet food processing capacity is being concentrated, leading to intensified competition among domestic brands, with an outlook for brands to expand internationally through quality or category differentiation [5][34]. - The millet economy sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with a strong emphasis on the IP segment as a key value driver in the industry chain [7][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Review - The report highlights a recent decline in the average price of live pigs to 16.17 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.94% [50]. - The average price of 7 kg piglets has also decreased to 383.33 yuan/head, reflecting a 3.94% week-on-week decline [50]. 2. Current Perspectives - Feed raw material prices have dropped significantly, with corn prices at 2157.06 yuan/ton (down 1.79% week-on-week) and soybean meal prices at 2927.71 yuan/ton (down 2.82% week-on-week) [4][32]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with cost advantages in the pig farming sector to optimize their breeding costs amid falling feed prices [33]. 3. Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Juxing Agriculture (603477.SH) for its leading cost position and potential to reduce breeding costs below 13 yuan/kg in 2024 [40]. - Zhengbang Technology (002157.SZ) for its restructuring and improved cost control measures [40]. - Dekang Agriculture (2019.HK) for its competitive breeding costs and significant output potential [40]. 4. Industry Data - As of December 6, 2024, the domestic corn price is 2157.06 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal price is 2927.71 yuan/ton, indicating a favorable trend for the pig farming sector [44]. - The report notes that the pig feed ratio is at 5.54, with self-breeding profits at 172.31 yuan/head, showing a decline of 11.99% week-on-week [50]. 5. Market Trends - The pet food industry is seeing a rise in domestic brand competition, with many manufacturers shifting to develop their own brands due to increased processing capacity [5][34]. - The report anticipates that the millet economy will continue to expand, driven by personalized emotional consumption trends [7][37].
农林牧渔行业周报:饲料原料下降降低生猪养殖成本,持续深耕生猪宠物户外娃娃4个赛道
Huaxin Securities·2024-12-08 09:44