有色金属 大宗金属周报：美国11月非农略超预期，金价窄幅震荡

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the gold prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with the market anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which has increased to an 86% probability from the previous 71% [1][4]. - The report suggests that the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to the dual easing of U.S. monetary and fiscal policies, alongside a contraction in dollar credit and de-dollarization trends [1]. - In the copper sector, the TC/RC long-term contracts have been established, indicating a tightening supply of copper concentrate, which is expected to support copper prices in the medium to long term [2][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for November exceeded expectations at 48.4, while the ADP employment figures were slightly below expectations with 146,000 jobs added [21]. - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for November also surpassed expectations, with an increase of 227,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2% [21]. 2. Precious Metals - Gold prices saw a decline of 0.52% in London and 0.46% on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while silver prices increased by 1.34% in London and 1.64% on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [34]. - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, and Shandong Gold in the precious metals sector [1]. 3. Industrial Metals - Copper prices increased by 1.75% in London and 1.22% in Shanghai, with significant reductions in copper inventories [55]. - The report notes that the copper smelting profit margin has narrowed to a loss of 913 yuan per ton, indicating a challenging environment for copper producers [55]. - The aluminum sector is facing a weak demand season, with aluminum prices showing slight increases, while the overall profitability remains under pressure [66]. 4. Minor Metals - The report indicates a general decline in minor metal prices, with tungsten, silicon manganese, and magnesium experiencing drops of 0.35%, 1.10%, and 1.11% respectively [5]. - Companies such as Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous are highlighted for potential investment opportunities in the minor metals sector [5].