农林牧渔2025年度策略：配置成长主线，静待需求回暖

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [2]. Core Views - The main investment strategy for 2025 focuses on growth-oriented segments while awaiting demand recovery [2]. - The report highlights that the pig price has shown a significant upward trend, reaching a peak of 21 CNY/kg in August 2024, although the overall stock performance has been weak due to the price's gradual increase [2]. - The report anticipates a recovery in supply for 2025, with an estimated average price of 16 CNY/kg for pigs, indicating a favorable profit outlook for the industry [2][27]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average pig price for 2024 is projected to be higher than in 2023, with a peak price of 20.92 CNY/kg recorded in August 2024 [11]. - The average profit per pig reached 171.9 CNY in November 2024, a significant improvement compared to previous years [11]. - The report predicts that the pig price will likely stabilize between the levels of 2023 and 2024, with a forecasted average price of 16 CNY/kg for 2025 [27][28]. Poultry - The report emphasizes the importance of midstream capacity and downstream consumption for white feather broilers, with a notable increase in the number of parent stock [30]. - The total number of parent stock in production reached 13.58 million sets by October 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.9% [30]. - The report suggests that the supply of broilers will need to increase by at least 10% in 2025 to meet the anticipated demand recovery [46]. Raw Materials - The report indicates a continued loose supply situation for raw materials, with domestic corn production expected to reach 297 million tons in the 2024/25 season, a 2.8% increase year-on-year [54]. - The report also notes that the demand for corn is projected to rise by 1.6%, leading to a narrowing of the production-demand gap [54][60]. - Global corn production is expected to decrease slightly, but overall supply remains at historically high levels [60].