农林牧渔行业周报:育肥栏舍利用率同环比大降,美、新发生高致病性禽流感
Huaan Securities·2024-12-08 09:58

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The average weight of slaughtered pigs has increased to over 128 kg, while the utilization rate of fattening barns has significantly decreased compared to the previous period [2] - The national average price of pigs has dropped to 15.8 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decline of 3.9% [2] - The enthusiasm for restocking remains weak, with a projected average decline of approximately 4.5% in the breeding sow inventory for 2024 compared to 2023 [2] - The valuation of the pig farming sector is at historical lows, with key companies recommended for investment including Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Shennong Group [2] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The agricultural sector index increased by 0.67% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index which rose by 1.44% [19] - The agricultural sector ranks 28th among 31 sub-industries in the Shenwan classification, with a year-to-date decline of 19.37% [19] 2. Industry Data 2.1 Primary Agricultural Products - Corn spot price is 2157.06 yuan/ton, down 1.79% week-on-week and down 18.39% year-on-year [47] - Soybean spot price is 3997.89 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week and down 17.87% year-on-year [47] 2.2 Livestock - The average weight of slaughtered pigs is reported at 128.33 kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1 kg [2] - The average utilization rate of fattening barns has decreased by 12.9% week-on-week and 28.3% year-on-year [2] 2.3 Poultry - The price of yellow feathered chickens has shown slight fluctuations, with the average price at 15.38 yuan/kg [4] - The price of white feathered chicken products is reported at 9270 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.3% [4] 3. Monthly Slaughter Data - The slaughter volume of listed pig companies increased by 6% year-on-year, with a total of 11,452 million pigs slaughtered from January to November [2] - The average asset-liability ratio of listed pig companies remains high at 61.5% [2] 4. Valuation - The absolute PE and PB ratios for the agricultural sector are 30.81 times and 2.57 times, respectively, significantly lower than historical averages [32][33]