水务行业系列深度之化债篇：水务行业三问，应收问题、未来增长、发展趋势？

Investment Rating - The report rates the water industry as "Buy" [2]. Core Insights - The report explores three critical questions regarding the water industry: the status of accounts receivable, future growth, and development trends. It highlights that 50-90% of accounts receivable for water companies come from sewage treatment fees, with a provision rate generally below 10%. The main debtors are local governments. As of the latest statistics, the total accounts receivable (accounts receivable + contract assets) for 14 major water companies amounts to 74.8 billion yuan, accounting for 50.1% of the total market value [2][54]. - The accounts receivable represent 64.1% of revenue, with accounts receivable due within one year making up 61.3%. Some companies, such as Wuhan Holdings and Beikong Water Group, have accounts receivable that exceed their market value, indicating significant financial pressure. The recent 12 trillion yuan debt relief policy is expected to improve the collection of receivables [2][54]. - The natural growth rate of the water industry is projected at 5-7% in the medium to long term, driven by population growth and GDP correlation. The report estimates that national water supply and sewage treatment volumes will grow by 2.8% and 3.1% respectively in 2024, with historical price growth rates of 2-3% [2][54]. Summary by Sections Accounts Receivable in the Water Industry - The total accounts receivable and contract assets for major water companies amount to 74.8 billion yuan, representing 50.1% of total market value. Over 60% of these receivables are aged within one year [54][58]. - Accounts receivable primarily stem from local government debts, accounting for approximately 50-90% of the total [79]. Natural Growth of the Water Industry - Historical compound growth rates for water volume are between 3-6%, closely linked to GDP growth. The report anticipates a 2.8% increase in national water supply and a 3.1% increase in sewage treatment volume for 2024 [54][58]. - The average historical growth rates for water prices are 1.4% for tap water and 9.3% for sewage treatment from 2016 to 2023, indicating potential for a new round of national price adjustments [54][58]. Future Development Trends in the Water Industry - The report identifies three key trends: asset consolidation, integration of plant and network operations, and price mechanism reforms. These trends are expected to enhance operational efficiency and improve financial performance [2][54]. - Companies such as Wuhan Holdings and Beikong Water Group are highlighted for their potential to benefit from the debt relief policy and the expected injection of assets from major shareholders [2][54].