当前时点如何看鸿路钢构市值空间？

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [12] Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to maintain stable investment in intelligent transformation over the next two years, with a slight decline in R&D expense ratio [2][18] - Intelligent transformation is anticipated to significantly reduce costs and enhance production efficiency, leading to substantial performance elasticity [3][23] - The macro demand is projected to improve marginally in 2024, with the company's steel structure products expected to see both volume and price increases [4][29] - Multiple factors are expected to converge, allowing the company to exhibit significant performance elasticity in the future [5][33] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the steel structure manufacturing industry, benefiting from industry expansion and consolidation [43] Summary by Sections Intelligent Transformation and R&D - The company's investment in intelligent transformation focuses on three core areas: cutting, welding, and spraying, with significant equipment already in place [2][18] - The total investment in welding robots is estimated at 1.4 billion yuan over three years, with a stable capital expenditure outlook [2][23] - R&D expenses are expected to stabilize as the company matures its R&D team, with a slight decrease in the R&D expense ratio anticipated [2][18] Cost Reduction and Efficiency - The potential for cost reduction through intelligent transformation is substantial, with estimates showing a decrease in unit costs and an increase in gross margins based on varying robot replacement rates [3][23] - The company anticipates a significant drop in unit costs and an increase in gross margins as production efficiency improves [3][24] Market Demand and Pricing - Manufacturing investment is expected to grow by 9.3% year-on-year, with a positive outlook for the company's steel structure products in terms of both volume and pricing [4][29] - The company is likely to benefit from improved macro demand, leading to a recovery in orders and production capacity [4][29] Performance Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of approximately 8.6 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 27% [5][33] - Under various scenarios (conservative, neutral, optimistic), the company’s net profits for 2025-2026 are estimated to show significant growth, with corresponding PE ratios indicating potential valuation increases [39][40] Industry Position and Growth Potential - The steel structure industry is expected to continue expanding, with the company positioned as a leading manufacturer benefiting from economies of scale and improved production efficiency [43] - The company is actively pursuing overseas projects, which are expected to contribute to its growth and market presence [43]