投资策略周报：A股跨年行情延续，“增量政策”可期

Market Overview - Global stock indices mostly rose this week, with the Hang Seng Tech Index, Hang Seng Index, and Shanghai Composite Index increasing by +2.6%, +2.3%, and +2.3% respectively[2] - A-share market showed strong performance, particularly in micro-cap stocks, with the micro-cap index and CSI 2000 leading the gains[2] - Financing balance in the two markets rose to 1.85 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity[2] Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue its year-end rally, supported by optimistic policy expectations and ample liquidity[3] - Foreign capital sentiment has improved, with continuous net buying of financing funds, which is likely to support market liquidity[3] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference may signal a proactive policy stance, focusing on growth stabilization and economic support measures[3] Economic Indicators - U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in November, reflecting increasing employment pressure, which has led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields[3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have increased, with an 86% probability noted[3][28] - The 10-year government bond yield has fallen below 2%, benefiting from a loose liquidity environment[3] Investment Strategy - Focus on "new quality bull" core assets such as AI, humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, domestic substitution, and data elements[3] - Attention to themes like mergers and acquisitions and market capitalization management, particularly in undervalued state-owned enterprises[3] Risks - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation, macroeconomic volatility, overseas liquidity risks, and geopolitical tensions[4]