宏观点评：美国11月就业大幅改善，降息节奏怎么看？

Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 200,000, with revisions in October and September data adding a total of 56,000 jobs[1] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, up from 4.1%, while the labor force participation rate was 62.5%, slightly below expectations[1] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month, slightly above the previous value and the 12-month average of 0.3%[1] Market Reactions - Following the employment report, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively, while the Dow Jones index fell by 0.3%[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 2 basis points to 4.17%, and the U.S. dollar index increased by 0.2% to 106.0[1] - The implied probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rose from 70% to 85% after the report[1] Economic Outlook - The report suggests a likely soft landing for the U.S. economy in 2025, with expectations of a rebound in the second half of the year[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with potential for an additional 50 basis points in the first half of 2025, depending on economic recovery[1] - Risks include inflation pressures from housing, wage-price spirals, and geopolitical conflicts that could exceed expectations[1]