钢铁行业周报：淡季深入，政策定调在即，关注碳市场扩容渐进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the steel industry, suggesting a focus on potential investment opportunities despite current market challenges [2][14]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is experiencing a weak trend, with iron ore prices remaining firm while coking coal prices have significantly declined, leading to downward pressure on steel prices. The macroeconomic expectations regarding policy have cooled, and both supply and demand for steel continue to decrease, with daily molten iron output dropping to 2.326 million tons [2][15]. - The report highlights five main investment lines, including companies with strong dividend yields and valuation recovery potential, those with high technical or cost barriers, and firms benefiting from resource endowments [2][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - The steel market is currently in a weak phase, with a decrease in both supply and demand. Daily molten iron production has decreased, and steel prices are under pressure due to falling coking coal prices [2][15]. 2. Weekly Review 2.1 Industry Performance - The steel industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 5.61% compared to the index's 1.44% rise. The current PE (TTM) for the steel industry is 28.61, and the PB (LF) is 1.01, indicating a mid-range valuation among industries [18]. 2.2 Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include Zhongnan Co. with a 28.89% increase, and Maanshan Steel with a 19.57% increase. Conversely, Guangda Special Materials saw a decline of 5.56% [21]. 2.3 Commodity Prices - The report provides insights into various commodity prices, including rebar, hot-rolled steel, coking coal, and iron ore, reflecting the current market dynamics [37][41][42]. 3. Recent Events 3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a mixed outlook, with China's PMI showing signs of improvement while export controls on dual-use items to the U.S. have been tightened [49]. 3.2 Industry Dynamics - The report notes planned maintenance for 12 blast furnaces in December, affecting a capacity of approximately 62,000 tons per day, alongside the introduction of new policies aimed at reducing emissions in key industries [54].