化工行业周报：USTMA上调美国2024轮胎出货量预测

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the chemical industry Core Insights - USTMA has raised its forecast for U.S. tire shipments in 2024 to 338.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, up from the previous estimate of 1.7% [2][17] - The report highlights key companies in the tire sector: Sailun Tire, Xuchang Rubber, and General Tire [2] - The basic chemical sector showed a positive market performance with a 1.94% increase during the week [6][8] Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.33% to 3404.08 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.69% to 10791.34 points during the week of November 29 to December 6, 2024 [6] - The basic chemical sector's performance was driven by sub-sectors such as chemical fibers (+4.55%), non-metallic materials II (+4.18%), and rubber (+3.37%) [8][6] Industry Fundamentals - As of December 6, 2024, WTI crude oil prices were $68.3 per barrel, down 0.61% week-on-week, while LNG prices rose by 2.66% to 4599 yuan per ton [11] - The report notes a slight decrease in coal prices, with thermal coal at 702 yuan per ton, down 0.85% week-on-week [11] - The tire raw material price index increased to 164.02, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 0.77% and a year-on-year increase of 26.63% [17] Key Industry Tracking - The natural rubber market price averaged 17883 yuan per ton, up 3.37% week-on-week and 42.78% year-on-year [17] - The report indicates that the operating rate for full steel tires was 58.85%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous week, while the semi-steel tire operating rate was 79.02%, down 0.05 percentage points [19] Chemical Product Price Movements - Among the monitored chemical products, PVDF powder saw the highest increase at 8.33%, while liquid chlorine experienced the largest decrease at -7.87% [15][14] - The report lists the top ten products by price increase and decrease, indicating significant fluctuations in the chemical market [15] Agricultural Chemical Sector - The potassium chloride market price slightly decreased to 2572 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year decline of 11.22% [26] - Urea prices showed a slight decline to 1825 yuan per ton, reflecting ongoing supply-demand imbalances [26] Fine Chemical Sector - The report notes stability in the sucralose market, with prices maintained at 240,000 yuan per ton despite rising raw material costs [38] - The aspartame market showed slight fluctuations, with prices ranging between 35,000 to 37,000 yuan per ton [38]