海外周报：11月美国CPI前瞻：同比料反弹至2.7%

Inflation Outlook - The November CPI in the U.S. is expected to rebound to +2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI remaining at +3.3%[1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability for December is estimated at 85%, with a potential 25bps reduction[1] - If the CPI exceeds +2.7%, there is a risk that the Fed may not proceed with the rate cut in December[1] Economic Growth - The GDPNow model predicts a +3.29% growth rate for Q4 2024, up from +2.69% previously[3] - Positive contributions to GDP growth are driven by construction spending, exports, and government spending, despite a slight decline in the ISM services PMI[3] - The New York Fed's Nowcasting model also shows an increase in GDP growth forecast from +1.81% to +1.89% for Q4 2024[3] Key CPI Components - The performance of used car prices is critical, as they significantly influence core CPI; a decline in used car prices could lead to a drop in core goods CPI[2] - Airfare prices have shown high volatility, with expectations of a significant decrease in November due to lower fuel prices and the resolution of labor strikes affecting airlines[2] - The persistence of wage inflation remains a concern, with the super core inflation showing signs of stability, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures[2] Political and Policy Considerations - Expectations regarding Trump's immigration and tariff policies have cooled, with a 70% chance of executing deportation orders on his first day in office[4] - The probability of imposing large tariffs on Mexico and Canada in the first six months is now at 19%[4] - The likelihood of Trump cutting corporate taxes again is estimated at 58%[4]