宏观量化经济指数周报：预计11月新增社融或同比多增

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.56%, up 0.03% from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, up 0.01%[20] - The investment index is at 50.01%, up 0.01%, and the export index is at 50.51%, up 0.05%[20] - The monthly ECI supply index increased by 0.05% compared to November, while the demand index rose by 0.03%[22] Financial Trends - The ELI index is at -1.43%, up 0.36% from last week, indicating a potential increase in new social financing in November[28] - New RMB loans are expected to be between 0.9-1.0 trillion, a decrease of 190-900 billion compared to the same period last year[31] - The net financing scale of national and local government bonds reached 1.83 trillion in November, an increase of nearly 740 billion year-on-year[31] Market Dynamics - The industrial production index shows high operating rates, with PTA operating rates significantly better than last year[22] - The export volume at monitored ports reached a new high for the year, driven by "export grabbing" behavior due to tariff expectations[22] - The average wholesale price of pork is at 23.36 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease, while the price of key monitored vegetables is at 5.00 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase[59] Risks - There is a short-term "export grabbing" phenomenon that may affect market stability[75] - The effectiveness of policy measures may fall short of market expectations[75] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate sector remains uncertain[75]