农产品研究跟踪系列报告（138）：猪禽产能波动不大，看好天然橡胶景气上行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [2][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a favorable outlook for low-positioned livestock investments and highlights opportunities for integration in the seed industry. It predicts that pig prices will remain stable through 2025 due to low production capacity and cautious replenishment in the poultry sector [2][3]. - The report identifies several key areas of focus: 1. Swine farming remains under high leverage with limited expansion intentions, but pig prices are expected to sustain their upward trend [2][3]. 2. The demand for yellow chickens is anticipated to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, while white chicken prices are expected to stabilize due to tight supply and improved downstream demand [2][3]. 3. The report also notes the importance of new product development in animal health, particularly vaccines for African swine fever and pet vaccines [2][3]. 4. The natural rubber supply is tightening, but demand remains stable, indicating a potential upward trend in market conditions [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights and Data Summary - The report provides a weekly update on agricultural prices, noting a decrease in pig prices to 15.62 CNY/kg, a 5.22% decline week-on-week [6][19]. - The price of 7kg piglets is reported at 383 CNY/head, down 3.94% week-on-week [6][19]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The report indicates that the swine market is adjusting, with expectations for continued price stability into 2024-2025 [6][19]. 2.2 White Chicken - Demand is expected to gradually improve, with a positive correlation between pig and chicken market conditions [6][19]. 2.3 Yellow Chicken - Supply remains at a low level, with demand gradually improving [6][19]. 2.4 Eggs - Short-term price fluctuations are noted, with ongoing supply pressures expected [6][19]. 2.5 Soybeans - Domestic supply is abundant, but upward pressure on prices is anticipated in the medium term [6][19]. 2.6 Corn - The market is experiencing weak fluctuations, but there is strong support at the bottom [6][19]. 2.7 Sugar - The report highlights a short-term oversupply situation, with medium-term weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere to watch [6][19]. 2.8 Rubber - Demand expectations are improving, with a positive outlook for price stabilization [6][19]. 3. Market Trends - The report includes various market trends and price movements across different agricultural products, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape [6][19].