证券行业2025年投资策略：打造国际一流投行

Industry Overview - The securities industry in 2024 saw a bull bond market and volatile stock market, with policy support driving brokerage performance [2] - Daily trading volume significantly increased, with margin financing balance rebounding in a V-shape [2] - IPO issuance and fundraising scale both declined year-over-year, while refinancing also faced pressure [2] - Asset management transformation is evident, with collective asset management scale rising and active management becoming a trend [2] - The self-operated business of brokerages is expected to improve significantly due to the recovery of the equity market and the bull bond market [2] Brokerage Performance - Brokerage stocks outperformed the broader market in 2024, with a cumulative increase of 36.08% as of November 29, 2024 [9] - Daily trading volume reached 11.26 trillion yuan, a 17% increase compared to 2023 [13] - Margin financing balance rose to 1.84 trillion yuan, up 11.4% from the end of 2023 [13] - Public fund sales by brokerages slightly declined, but ETFs showed significant advantages [18] - IPO issuance and fundraising scale dropped by 70% and 83% year-over-year, respectively [22] Asset Management Transformation - Asset management scale reached 6.3 trillion yuan by the end of September 2024, up 7% from the end of 2023 [27] - Collective asset management scale increased by 18% to 3.1 trillion yuan [27] - The transformation towards active management is accelerating, with the asset management business structure expected to optimize [27] Leading Brokerages' Development Paths - Leading brokerages are expanding through business innovation, group operations, and mergers and acquisitions to strengthen their competitive edge [3] - Examples include CITIC Securities leveraging its group advantages and Huatai Securities enhancing its business segments through acquisitions [43] - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are cited as examples of international leading brokerages that have grown through strategic reforms and acquisitions [45][54] Investment Recommendations - Brokerages are expected to benefit directly from market rebounds, with low valuations and significant upside potential [4] - Key recommendations include CITIC Securities, China Merchants Securities, Huatai Securities, CICC, and East Money Information [4] - The valuation of brokerage stocks is expected to improve with liquidity enhancements and favorable policies [4] Industry Consolidation and M&A Trends - Industry competition is driving merger and acquisition demands, with large brokerages consolidating their advantages and smaller brokerages seeking to grow through acquisitions [3] - Recent M&A cases include CITIC Securities acquiring Guangzhou Securities and CICC acquiring China Investment Securities [120] - Regulatory support for M&A is expected to drive industry consolidation and improve competitiveness [117] Future Trends and Transformation - Brokerages are transitioning towards market-making, investment advisory, and digital transformation to achieve stable growth [148] - Wealth management remains a key growth area, with brokerages leveraging their research capabilities and channel advantages [158] - Investment banking is expected to face short-term tightening but remains promising in the long term, especially in mergers and acquisitions [162]