债市将小幅调整，但抢跑行情未完

Market Overview - The government bond futures experienced a slight upward adjustment during the week of December 2-8, 2024, with the main contracts closing at 102.732, 105.775, 107.515, and 115.280 for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds respectively, reflecting changes of +0.088, +0.260, +0.410, and +0.720 from the previous week[1][39]. - The 10-year government bond yield is currently around 1.95%, with expectations that it will not effectively break above 2.0% in the coming week[2][17]. Economic Indicators - A significant number of economic indicators are set to be released next week, with expectations for marginal improvements in most data points, including manufacturing PMI[2][17]. - The upcoming Politburo meeting is anticipated to positively influence market risk appetite, leading to a slight adjustment in the bond market[2][17]. Investment Strategies - The ongoing "running ahead" market sentiment suggests that investors should seize opportunities to buy during adjustments[2][21]. - Given the constraints in the funding environment, the yield curve is expected to flatten temporarily, but a steepening is anticipated in late December[2][22]. Risk Factors - There is a rising concern regarding market risk appetite and potential disturbances from overseas conditions affecting domestic policies[3][2]. - The central bank's recent actions, including a net withdrawal of 11,321 million yuan, indicate a tightening liquidity environment, which may impact bond market performance[2][63]. Financing Trends - This week, a total of 66 interest rate bonds were issued, with a net financing amount of 654.115 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 4,148.91 million yuan from the previous week[2][24]. - The net financing for local government bonds also saw a decline, with a total issuance of 5,486.72 million yuan, down by 3,925.81 million yuan compared to last week[2][24].