军工行业2025年度策略：追进度带来业绩切换，布局主战与新质装备

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the defense and military industry [1]. Core Insights - The defense and military industry faced significant challenges in 2024, with unexpected adjustments in the downstream sector leading to sustained performance pressure. However, the industry is expected to recover as orders are gradually issued, indicating that the "performance bottom" is forming [1][2]. - The key theme for 2025 is "catching up on progress," with the largest variable being the issuance of orders that will drive performance shifts across the core industrial chain [2][3]. - The focus for 2025 will be on main battle equipment and new quality equipment, with rapid development expected in military aircraft, ships, and guided munitions [3]. Summary by Sections Review of 2024 - The defense and military industry experienced a downturn, with the first three quarters of 2024 showing a decline in revenue and profit for the first time in five years, with total revenue dropping to 376.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.85% [29][30]. - The industry faced dual pressures from delayed orders and performance declines, but market sentiment improved significantly after the 924 policy announcement, leading to a rebound in the sector [1][18]. Outlook for 2025 - The report emphasizes that 2025 will be a crucial year for the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on resolving internal issues to meet military construction goals. A new procurement cycle is expected to begin, driven by the issuance of orders [2][47]. - External geopolitical pressures, particularly from the U.S. under Trump's administration, may intensify, impacting the defense landscape [48][51]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies eleven key investment opportunities within the military sector, including military aircraft manufacturers like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group, as well as companies involved in missile technology, commercial aerospace, and underwater security [4].