策略点评20241209：投资者在等待什么“靴子”落地？

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Expectations - The Hang Seng Index has been hovering around 19,000 points for a month, leading to uncertainty among institutional investors[1] - Investors are waiting for significant policy changes, particularly regarding tariffs, to stimulate buying in Chinese assets[1] - There is a divergence in expectations regarding tariff increases, with overseas investors anticipating immediate hikes while domestic investors expect a more gradual approach[1] Group 2: Economic Stimulus and Policy Measures - Investors are looking for a series of stimulus policies, especially in consumption and domestic demand, with a preference for smaller, incremental measures rather than large-scale initiatives[2] - The upcoming economic stimulus policies are expected to be paced and responsive to fiscal feedback rather than implemented all at once[2] - The real estate market in first-tier cities is showing signs of recovery, which could stabilize housing prices and enhance consumer spending if the trend continues into Q1 2025[3] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Risks include domestic economic stimulus falling short of expectations, the U.S. economy outperforming, and geopolitical tensions[4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of tariff policies on the RMB exchange rate and trade balances, particularly in light of the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations[1]