2025年煤炭行业投资策略：煤炭供给紧缺导致煤价上行趋势走强，“能源安全”成为行业投资主逻辑

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, driven by supply constraints and rising coal prices, with a focus on energy security as the primary investment theme [1] Core Views - Coal demand remains resilient despite a declining share in energy consumption, with absolute consumption continuing to grow due to China's reliance on coal to cover incremental energy demand [4] - Power sector coal consumption is the primary driver of overall coal demand growth, with coal-fired power accounting for 70% of total electricity generation in 2024 [4] - Domestic coal supply growth is constrained due to slow investment in new mines and the natural exit of aging mines, leading to a potential contraction in production [4] - China's coal supply gap is increasingly met by imports, with import dependency rising from 7% in 2022 to 11% in 2024, highlighting energy security concerns [5] - The "Xinjiang Coal Outbound" strategy is identified as a key investment opportunity, leveraging Xinjiang's abundant coal reserves and favorable mining conditions [5] Coal Demand Resilience - Coal's share in China's primary energy consumption has declined to 53.8% in 2023, but absolute consumption continues to grow, contributing 39% of total energy consumption growth [13] - Per capita electricity consumption in China is only 50% of the US level, indicating significant growth potential in power demand, which drives coal consumption [15] - Coal consumption growth is primarily driven by the power and coal chemical sectors, with the power sector maintaining a 4% annual growth rate over the past five years [19] Domestic Coal Supply Constraints - Investment in new coal mines has slowed, with state-owned enterprises focusing on transitioning to new energy sectors and private enterprises reducing investments due to regulatory uncertainties [27] - New coal production capacity additions are limited, with only 500 million tons expected from 2024-2026, while aging mines are expected to reduce production by 400-500 million tons annually [34] - China's actual commercial coal production is expected to decline gradually due to the exit of aging mines and limited new capacity additions [36] Rising Import Dependency and Energy Security - China's coal import dependency has risen to 11% in 2024, with imports expected to reach 520 million tons, up from 340 million tons in 2022 [65] - Global coal investment is primarily focused on mine maintenance rather than capacity expansion, with 90% of investments concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly China and India [68] - Only India and Indonesia have the potential for significant coal production growth, while major coal-producing countries in Europe and the US are gradually exiting the industry [72] Investment Opportunities in Xinjiang Coal Outbound - Xinjiang is identified as a key region for coal supply, with reserves ranking second in China and favorable mining conditions, making it a strategic area for coal production [96] - The "Xinjiang Coal Outbound" strategy is supported by ongoing railway infrastructure projects, with the Tuhu region being the most beneficiary area due to its proximity to major coal-consuming regions [112] - Guanghui Energy is highlighted as a key beneficiary of the "Xinjiang Coal Outbound" strategy, with significant coal assets in the Tuhu region and potential for production growth [115] Power Coal vs. Coking Coal Investment Opportunities - Power coal is expected to outperform coking coal, with prices projected to rise in 2025 due to potential La Niña weather conditions and reduced hydropower generation [122] - Coking coal prices have been under pressure due to weak demand, particularly from the real estate sector, leading to lower valuations for coking coal stocks compared to power coal stocks [129] - Key investment recommendations include Guanghui Energy and Haohua Energy, which are expected to benefit from rising power coal prices and the "Xinjiang Coal Outbound" strategy [132]