电动车2025年年度策略：苦尽甘来满园春，姹紫嫣红别样情

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for leading companies in the battery and structural components sectors, including CATL, BYD, and EVE Energy, as well as structural component leader Keda Li [4][345]. Core Insights - The domestic electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to exceed 13 million units in 2024, representing a 37% increase, with a projected 25% growth to approximately 16.28 million units in 2025 [2][49]. - Global EV sales are anticipated to reach 17.01 million units in 2024, a 27% increase, and 20.83 million units in 2025, reflecting a 22% growth [2][105]. - The demand for lithium batteries is expected to grow by 25% in 2025, driven by both electric vehicles and energy storage systems, with total demand projected at 1,351 GWh [3][111]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in the battery supply chain, with a forecasted increase in production capacity utilization to 67% in 2025, indicating a shift towards a more balanced supply-demand dynamic [4][183]. Summary by Sections Demand - Domestic EV sales in 2024 are projected to exceed 13 million units, with a 37% year-on-year increase, driven by favorable policies and consumer demand [2][10]. - The electric vehicle penetration rate in China is expected to surpass 42% in 2024, with significant growth in the lower price segments [10][49]. Supply - The report indicates that the supply chain has reached a low point, with a forecasted increase in production capacity utilization to 67% in 2025, suggesting a recovery in profitability for leading manufacturers [4][183]. - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to see a 25% increase in demand in 2025, with total demand projected at 1,351 GWh [3][111]. New Technologies - The report notes advancements in solid-state battery technology, with increased support from the government and industry players, indicating a potential shift in the market landscape [306][307]. - The development of composite copper foil is expected to accelerate, providing cost advantages and enhancing battery performance [342][343]. Investment Recommendations - The report strongly recommends investing in leading battery manufacturers such as CATL and BYD, as well as structural component leaders like Keda Li, due to their technological innovations and cost advantages [4][345]. - It also highlights the potential for significant returns from companies involved in lithium and battery materials, particularly those with strong resource positions [4][345]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape, noting that while leading companies maintain strong market positions, there is increasing pressure from emerging players in the battery materials sector [4][345]. - The anticipated recovery in battery prices and the stabilization of raw material costs are expected to support profitability in the sector [4][345].