天风证券：晨会集萃-20241209

Core Views - The report highlights the issuance of 500 billion yuan in special bonds by China Reform Holdings and China Chengtong to support key projects under the "Two Major and Two New" initiatives, aimed at stabilizing growth and expanding investment [1] - The revision of M1 statistics has narrowed its volatility, and its leading indicator role in the Pringle cycle remains significant, with the market entering a policy-intensive period in December [1][16] - The market is currently in the second phase of the "Strong Expectations, Weak Reality" scenario, with policy-driven and thematic rotations dominating the landscape [1][16] Market and Industry Analysis - The A-share market is at a critical juncture, with technical indicators suggesting a potential shift in the medium-term trend, recommending a moderate position ahead of key events [24][26] - The real estate sector shows signs of recovery, with core cities experiencing increased land auction activity and improved transaction volumes, indicating a potential turnaround in the sector [12][51] - The construction materials sector is entering a policy window, with potential for valuation elasticity in consumer building materials and a positive outlook for cement prices in 2025 [48][49] Sector-Specific Insights - The electronics sector is poised for growth, driven by policy support and product innovation cycles, particularly in AI and semiconductor industries [5] - The defense sector is accelerating its modernization, with the establishment of the Information Support Force expected to drive advancements in electronic warfare and data link technologies [56] - The tobacco and e-cigarette industry is seeing growth in exports, with Southeast Asia emerging as a significant market for Chinese e-cigarette products [57] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as real estate, pharmaceuticals, and technology, particularly AI and robotics, as part of a diversified investment strategy [24][26] - In the real estate sector, attention is drawn to high-quality non-state-owned enterprises and leading state-owned enterprises, which are expected to benefit from policy support and market recovery [51] - The electronics and semiconductor sectors are highlighted for their potential in AI and terminal applications, with a focus on design recovery and mergers and acquisitions [5] Key Data Points - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3404.08, up 1.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.31% [2] - The global cloud infrastructure services market saw a 23% increase in spending in Q3 2024, reaching 84 billion USD [5] - The real estate sector in November saw a 20% year-on-year increase in sales area in key 30 cities, with land auction premiums reaching a yearly high [51]