煤炭开采行业周报：中电联提出电煤长协“优质优价”热值折算建议方案

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1]. Core Insights - The China Electricity Council proposed a "quality for price" heat value conversion suggestion for long-term coal contracts, with specific conversion coefficients for different calorific values [1]. - The expected benchmark price for long-term coal contracts in 2025 is projected to remain at 675 RMB per ton [1]. - Recent trends show a decline in coal prices at ports and pitheads, with Qinhuangdao port's average price for 5500 kcal coal at 815 RMB per ton, down 7 RMB per ton week-on-week [1]. - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port is at a record high, with 6.87 million tons as of December 6, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.53% [1]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report highlights that the coal market is experiencing downward pressure on prices, with both domestic and international prices showing a decline [1][3]. - The average price of 5500 kcal coal at Qinhuangdao port is reported at 815 RMB per ton, a decrease of 0.82% from the previous week [1][6]. Price Trends - The report notes that the prices of thermal coal and coking coal have continued to decline, with specific figures indicating a drop in prices at various locations [1][12]. - The report also mentions the recent decrease in international energy prices, including crude oil and natural gas [1][14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates a decrease in iron production and blast furnace capacity utilization, with the average operating rate of sample washing plants at 87.33% [1][24]. - Coal inventories at independent coking plants and major steel mills are reported to be at low levels, suggesting a potential supply constraint [1][30]. Company Performance and Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, highlighting their low price-to-book ratios as attractive investment opportunities [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential for coal stocks to benefit from upcoming policy changes and market dynamics, suggesting a favorable outlook for the sector [1][32].