药明康德：生物安全法案大概率立法失败，看好估值修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec, with a target price raised to 78.51 RMB, reflecting a potential upside of 42.2% from the current price of 55.22 RMB [2][6]. Core Insights - The failure of the Biosecure Act to be included in the 2025 NDAA indicates significant legislative hurdles, reducing the likelihood of its passage in the near term. This is expected to positively impact WuXi AppTec's competitive position in the global pharmaceutical R&D industry [1][6]. - The company is anticipated to maintain its leading position in the global chemical drug CDMO market, with overseas competitors lagging significantly in revenue and capacity [1][6]. - A recovery in global biopharmaceutical financing is expected to drive rapid growth in orders for WuXi AppTec, with a reported 35% year-on-year increase in backlog orders as of September, including a remarkable 196% increase in TIDES orders [1][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for WuXi AppTec are as follows: 38,906 million RMB in FY24E, 43,332 million RMB in FY25E, and 49,225 million RMB in FY26E, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -3.6%, +11.4%, and +13.6% respectively [1][9]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to be 10,427 million RMB in FY24E, 11,668 million RMB in FY25E, and 13,474 million RMB in FY26E, with corresponding growth rates of -3.9%, +11.9%, and +15.5% [1][9]. - The adjusted earnings per share are forecasted to be 3.61 RMB in FY24E, 4.04 RMB in FY25E, and 4.67 RMB in FY26E, with growth rates of -3.9%, +11.9%, and +15.5% respectively [1][9]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes a DCF model with a WACC of 9.42% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0%, resulting in a calculated equity value of 226,740 million RMB and a per-share value of 78.51 RMB [6][9]. - The adjusted P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 15.3 in FY24E to 11.8 in FY26E, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [13].