造纸点评：细分纸种涨价落地，有望延续至小阳春

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the paper industry, rating it as "Positive" [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that price increases for specific paper types are being implemented, which is expected to continue into the early spring of 2025. This is driven by supply shortages due to production halts at major manufacturers like Chenming Paper [2][3]. - The report indicates that the paper industry has been under pressure since Q2 2021, with significant losses reported by major players. However, recent production cuts signal a potential bottoming out of the market [3][11]. - The report provides detailed analysis on various paper segments, including white card paper, cultural paper, and corrugated paper, noting their respective demand, supply, and pricing trends [25][38]. Summary by Sections Price Increases and Supply Dynamics - The report notes that price hikes for white card paper and cultural paper have been implemented, with increases of 200 RMB/ton for white card paper and 300 RMB/ton for cultural paper observed in late 2023 [2][11]. - Chenming Paper has halted production at over 70% of its capacity, which is seen as a clear signal of the industry's bottoming out [3][11]. Demand and Supply Analysis - For white card paper, the total demand in 2023 was 8.12 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 14%. The total capacity was 16.27 million tons, also up 14% year-on-year [25]. - Cultural paper demand reached 9.01 million tons in 2023, with a 11% increase year-on-year, while total capacity was 15.4 million tons, up 9% year-on-year [25]. - The report anticipates that the corrugated paper segment will see stable demand recovery, with total demand for boxboard paper at 33.53 million tons in 2023, reflecting a 10% increase year-on-year [25]. Pulp Price Trends - The report discusses the stability of pulp prices, noting fluctuations in hardwood and softwood pulp prices due to supply chain disruptions and demand recovery in Europe and the US [38]. - Hardwood pulp prices have seen a decline to around 550 USD/ton, while softwood pulp prices have stabilized around 785 USD/ton as of November 2024 [38]. Recommendations for Investment - The report recommends investing in leading companies with strong resource endowments and management efficiency, such as Sun Paper and Xianhe Co., which are expected to perform well in the upcoming years [8][38]. - The report also highlights the potential of companies like Huawang Technology and Jiu Long Paper, which are positioned to benefit from market recovery and demand stabilization [8][38].