石油化工行业周报第381期：OPEC+延长减产计划，继续看好“三桶油”长期配置价值

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for "Three Oil Giants" [5] Core Views - OPEC+ has extended its production cut plan, maintaining high oil price demands. The voluntary production cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day will last until the end of 2026, and 2.2 million barrels per day until the first quarter of 2025, with gradual increases thereafter [1][29] - The marginal cost of U.S. shale oil is approximately $64 per barrel, which is expected to drive oil price rebalancing. This cost represents the average price needed for new wells to be profitable [2][38] - The "Three Oil Giants" are demonstrating strong long-term investment value, with their high dividend yields becoming increasingly attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [2][41] Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Cuts - OPEC+ has decided to extend its voluntary production cuts, with the latest plan reducing production by about 1.5 million barrels per day compared to previous plans for mid-2025 [1][29] - The fiscal breakeven oil price for Saudi Arabia is projected to be $96.2 per barrel in 2024 and $84.7 in 2025, indicating a strong desire among Middle Eastern countries to maintain high oil prices [1][32] U.S. Shale Oil Marginal Costs - The average marginal cost for new shale oil wells is $64 per barrel, which is higher than the previous year's $62 per barrel, indicating a slight increase in profitability requirements for new drilling [2][38] Long-term Value of "Three Oil Giants" - The "Three Oil Giants" (China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC) are focusing on long-term strategies, enhancing their operational resilience and capitalizing on domestic natural gas market opportunities [3][41] - The dividend yield spread between these companies and the 10-year government bond yield has been increasing, highlighting their attractiveness as high-dividend assets [2][41] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the "Three Oil Giants" and related oil service companies, as they are expected to benefit from the tightening oil supply under OPEC+ and the recovery in global upstream capital expenditure [4]